This is a summary of how CAPA21-endorsed candidates fared in Tuesday’s general election and a preview of what’s next. As always, no election result is final until certified and we may still see surprises in some races.
UPDATE (11/10/22): In our Nov. 9 update, we incorrectly wrote that Jay Chen lost to Rep. Michelle Steel. With only 55% of the votes counted, the race for California’s 45th Congressional District is too early to call. Election results take time. It means our democracy is working. We must ensure we are counting every vote.
The ‘Red Wave’ didn’t reach the shore. Many observers expected a blowout by the GOP across and up and down the field. The Democrats are still expected the lose the House, but by a much smaller margin. Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada will determine control of the Senate. “How Democrats Avoided a Red Wave” in The Atlantic has one analysis.
CAPA21 will donate again to Senator Warnock in a run-off. It appears that Sen. Warnock will not reach the 50 percent vote threshold and there will be a run-off election on December 6. This a considered a new election with the same contribution limits as general and primary elections. CAPA21 prepared for this possibility and will donate $5,000 to support Sen. Warnock. We will also confer with the groups on the ground we supported to assess additional support.
We are disappointed in Stacy Abrams’s loss in the governor’s race. We will explore postmortems illuminating what happened in Georgia, but are heartened that the Asian American Advocacy Fund and the other grassroots organizations we supported helped turn out 54% support by Asian Americans for Abrams and an amazing 59% support for Warnock, the highest support level among ethnic groups after the African American vote.
Amazing Pennsylvania comeback by Fetterman. CAPA21-endorsed Senate candidate Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (and Josh Shapiro’s win in the governor’s race) shocked the country and created a critical buffer for Senate control since this race is a flip. We supported Fetterman with the maximum donation and also gave the Asian Pacific Islander Political Alliance in Pennsylvania $20,000 as we knew this would be a critical race. APIPA reports that they ran the largest Asian American direct voter contact program in U.S. history, knocking on more than 130,000 doors and making more than two million phone calls.
We’re proud to see our endorsed candidates Senator Tammy Duckworth (IL), Senator Maggie Hassan (NH), and Senator Alex Padilla (CA) win their respective races and especially congratulate Senator Padilla on being the first Latino elected to the U.S. Senate from California! We’re disappointed that Mandela Barnes (WI), Cheri Beasley (NC), and Tim Ryan (OH) lost their races, but each of them ran strong and admirable campaigns.
On the House side, CAPA21-endorsed Rep. Andy Kim survived a brutal challenge from the GOP establishment and former state Sen. Jill Tokuda will be the newest Member of Congress from Hawai‘i. Rep. Mary Peltola (AK) is at 47% with 75% of votes counted and is expected to win. Rep. Mark Takano, Rep. Judy Chu, Rep. Grace Meng, and Rep. Pramila Jayapal won re-election as expected. The other California Congressional candidates we supported are still in races too early to call.
While CAPA21 is focused primarily on federal races, we invested in a few key state races other than the Stacy Abrams contest in Georgia. CAPA21 supported Stephanie Nguyen’s candidacy for California Assembly and it appears she’s headed to a win, filling the absence of any Democratic AAPI women in the California state Legislature. We also contributed to the Michigan State Senate races with Stephanie Chang and Sam Singh victories, helping Democrats take control of the state Senate for the first time in 38 years.
What’s Next. Ron DeSantis’s overwhelming win in Florida and Trump’s negative impact on the midterms sets the stage on the GOP side for 2024. If Democrats hold the Senate and lose the House, we will see MAGA Republicans in the House tie up the government for the next two years. We also need to start evaluating President Biden’s next two years.
We will continue to monitor the undecided contests and provide another update when we know more.
~ Dale, Maeley, Ginger, Tamlyn